THE COMMODITIES MARKET
Technical Overview
Commodities Explained
Commodities are raw materials or basic products used to produce other goods or deliver services. They often take center stage during inflationary periods, serving as a hedge against inflation. Gold, in particular, has an important psychological value as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
But other commodities can also signal shifts in economic cycles. A bottom and rise in copper prices – widely regarded as a barometer of economic health – may signal bearish conditions for bonds and utilities, which are sensitive to interest rate changes.
Energy prices impact the whole economy, besides having a psychological effect on inflation. Rising oil prices, for instance, act as a “tax” on the economy as it tends to slow growth prospects. This often turns into lower interest rates and higher bond prices.
COMMODITIES AND THE US DOLLAR
Commodities, priced in US dollars, tend to have an inverse relationship with the USD. A strong USD often puts downward pressure on commodity prices, making them less attractive to investors.
Commodity groups
Similar to industry sectors in equity markets, the commodity market consists of several groups, each providing different economic signals.
Precious metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. Copper, despite being used primarily for industrial purposes, is usually also lumped into this category. Precious metals are very popular among Forex traders due to their perceived monetary value.
Energy: Oil is the most prone to supply shocks, political tensions in Oil-producing countries or regions, policies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and volatile demand from emerging countries. These factors create significant risks for those trading in this market. Higher Oil prices tend to negatively impact equities, raising the prospects of higher inflation and slower growth.
Grains: Grain prices fluctuate on the so-called crop year, with planting and harvesting forming tradable price cycles. However, those cycles are influenced by unpredictable weather conditions. Key agricultural commodities include Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Oats.
Soft commodities: This category includes coffee, orange juice, cocoa, sugar and cotton.
Some commodities, specifically the metals group, are considered tangible assets because they are non-perishable. Meanwhile, Silver and Gold have the advantage of consistent specifications across nations, unlike Texas and Brent crude Oil, which differ in composition.
GOLD SPOT - DAILY CHART
US DOLLAR INDEX - DAILY CHART
PALLADIUM - CHART
WTI OIL- DAILY CHART
Commodity Currencies
Commodity currencies are said to be correlated with the price of commodities. The Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are considered commodity currencies because the economies backed by the named currencies are sensitive to commodity valuations. In this light, be sure to factor in the global economic outlook when evaluating any of the commodity currencies. In any case, correlation is not causation and such relationships can and do break down.
AUD/USD SPOT - 60 MIN
AUD
Being China a tremendous consumer of raw materials, and Australia a leading exporter of metals, coal and grains, market perceptions of strong demand from China could see the Australian dollar gain in sympathy with commodity prices. The boom in Asian regional growth over the past decade has supported the Australian economy, bringing with it higher levels of inflation. This explains why the RBA maintained higher interest rates than other major central banks.
Visit a dedicated AUD/USD page.
CAD/USD SPOT (RECIPROCAL)- 60 MIN
CAD
Canada is the fifth largest gold producer and fourteenth largest oil producer. Thereby, strong commodity prices generally benefit domestic producers and increase their income from exports. There is a caveat, though, and that is the positive correlation makes the Canadian dollar more expensive in USD terms. Since Canada's economy is very dependent on external demand from the United States, a strong CAD could filter into reduced demand for Canadian Exports.
Visit a dedicated USD/CAD page.
NZD/USD SPOT - 60 MIN
NZD
New Zealand is primarily an agricultural-commodity-producing economy (dairy products and meat in particular), and therefore it displays a weaker correlation than CAD and AUD to metal and energy prices. But still, it is highly sensitive to global performance, especially of its key trading partners, Australia, United States and Japan. It's commodity currency status is also to be understood via its dependency on the Australian economy, and since Australia is very commodity driven, any changes affecting the Australian economy affect New Zealand as well. Against the Japanese yen, the NZD can bee regarded as a risk barometer.
HOW BULLISH ARE COMMODITY CURRENCIES AND THE USD AGAINST A BASQUET OF 21 WORLD CURRENCIES?
The Bullish Percentage Index compares the four majors against the 21 most traded currencies (according to the BIS statistics). Among these currencies are the Korean Won, the Mexican Peso, the Turkish Lira, the Brazilian Real, etc. It shows the percentage of currency crosses on buy signals on Point and Figure charts. Point and Figure charts have the particularity of being objectively bullish or bearish, depending on the most recent double-top/bottom buy or sell signal. The Bullish Percentage Index is a breadth indicator used in stock indices, and its logic has been adopted by FXStreet.com to measure currency strength.
The index can be read as an oscillator, with readings between 0% and 100%. It is updated on a daily basis, on GMT close, and compared to the same data 5 days ago.
Latest Commodities Analysis
Editors' picks
زوج يورو/دولار EUR/USD يرتفع إلى أعلى مستوى له في خمسة أسابيع حول 1.1750
يواصل زوج يورو/دولار EUR/USD انتعاشه القوي بشكل جيد ويتنقل في منطقة أعلى المستويات على مدى عدة أسابيع فوق حاجز 1.1700 على خلفية عمليات البيع المكثفة في الدولار الأمريكي، والتي تفاقمت بعد أن جاءت الوظائف غير الزراعية الأمريكية أقل من التوقعات بمقدار 22 ألف وظيفة في أغسطس/آب.
زوج استرليني/دولار GBP/USD يبدو قوياً حول 1.3550 مع ضعف الدولار
أدى الأداء القوي لمجموعة المخاطر إلى رفع زوج استرليني/دولار GBP/USD بشكل جيد فوق حاجز 1.3500 يوم الجمعة، ليصل في الوقت نفسه إلى أعلى مستوياته خلال أسبوعين ويعكس تراجعين أسبوعيين متتاليين. على الرغم من الأداء القوي، من المتوقع أن يبقى الجنيه الإسترليني تحت المراقبة على خلفية المخاوف المالية المستمرة في الوطن.
الين الياباني يبقى في المقدمة مقابل الدولار الأمريكي؛ الثيران يفتقرون إلى الاقتناع قبل تقرير الوظائف غير الزراعية الأمريكي
يواجه الين الياباني صعوبة في الاستفادة من مكاسبه المتواضعة خلال اليوم مقابل الدولار الأمريكي الأضعف بشكل عام حيث يختار المتداولون الانتقال إلى الخطوط الجانبية قبل صدور تقرير الوظائف غير الزراعية NFP في الولايات المتحدة. ستلعب بيانات الوظائف الحاسمة دورًا رئيسيًا في التأثير على توقعات السوق بشأن مسار خفض أسعار الفائدة من الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، مما سيدفع الدولار الأمريكي ويوفر بعض الزخم المعنوي لزوج الدولار الأمريكي/الين الياباني.
الذهب في مستويات قياسية، يقترب من 3600 دولار
لا يزال تقدم الذهب نحو الشمال بلا هوادة يوم الجمعة، حيث يتداول المعدن النفيس بالقرب من حاجز منطقة 3600 دولار للأونصة على خلفية الضغوط السلبية المكثفة على الدولار الأمريكي وتوقعات ثابتة بخفض أسعار الفائدة من قبل الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في أقرب وقت هذا الشهر.
سعر خام غرب تكساس الوسيط: التحيز الهبوطي لا يزال مستمرًا تحت متوسط 100 يوم الأسي بالقرب من 63.00 دولار
يتداول خام غرب تكساس الوسيط (WTI) قرب منطقة 63.00 دولار خلال ساعات التداول الأوروبية المبكرة يوم الأربعاء. ينخفض خام غرب تكساس الوسيط حيث ارتفعت مخزونات النفط الخام بشكل غير متوقع الأسبوع الماضي. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، فإن تقريرًا من رويترز يفيد بأن منظمة أوبك OPEC وحلفائها تفكر في زيادة مستويات إنتاجها من النفط الخام يثير المخاوف بشأن فائض إمدادات النفط العالمية، مما يضغط على الجانب السلبي لأسعار WTI.