THE COMMODITIES MARKET
Technical Overview
Commodities Explained
Commodities are raw materials or basic products used to produce other goods or deliver services. They often take center stage during inflationary periods, serving as a hedge against inflation. Gold, in particular, has an important psychological value as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
But other commodities can also signal shifts in economic cycles. A bottom and rise in copper prices – widely regarded as a barometer of economic health – may signal bearish conditions for bonds and utilities, which are sensitive to interest rate changes.
Energy prices impact the whole economy, besides having a psychological effect on inflation. Rising oil prices, for instance, act as a “tax” on the economy as it tends to slow growth prospects. This often turns into lower interest rates and higher bond prices.
COMMODITIES AND THE US DOLLAR
Commodities, priced in US dollars, tend to have an inverse relationship with the USD. A strong USD often puts downward pressure on commodity prices, making them less attractive to investors.
Commodity groups
Similar to industry sectors in equity markets, the commodity market consists of several groups, each providing different economic signals.
Precious metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. Copper, despite being used primarily for industrial purposes, is usually also lumped into this category. Precious metals are very popular among Forex traders due to their perceived monetary value.
Energy: Oil is the most prone to supply shocks, political tensions in Oil-producing countries or regions, policies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and volatile demand from emerging countries. These factors create significant risks for those trading in this market. Higher Oil prices tend to negatively impact equities, raising the prospects of higher inflation and slower growth.
Grains: Grain prices fluctuate on the so-called crop year, with planting and harvesting forming tradable price cycles. However, those cycles are influenced by unpredictable weather conditions. Key agricultural commodities include Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Oats.
Soft commodities: This category includes coffee, orange juice, cocoa, sugar and cotton.
Some commodities, specifically the metals group, are considered tangible assets because they are non-perishable. Meanwhile, Silver and Gold have the advantage of consistent specifications across nations, unlike Texas and Brent crude Oil, which differ in composition.
GOLD SPOT - DAILY CHART
US DOLLAR INDEX - DAILY CHART
PALLADIUM - CHART
WTI OIL- DAILY CHART
Commodity Currencies
Commodity currencies are said to be correlated with the price of commodities. The Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are considered commodity currencies because the economies backed by the named currencies are sensitive to commodity valuations. In this light, be sure to factor in the global economic outlook when evaluating any of the commodity currencies. In any case, correlation is not causation and such relationships can and do break down.
AUD/USD SPOT - 60 MIN
AUD
Being China a tremendous consumer of raw materials, and Australia a leading exporter of metals, coal and grains, market perceptions of strong demand from China could see the Australian dollar gain in sympathy with commodity prices. The boom in Asian regional growth over the past decade has supported the Australian economy, bringing with it higher levels of inflation. This explains why the RBA maintained higher interest rates than other major central banks.
Visit a dedicated AUD/USD page.
CAD/USD SPOT (RECIPROCAL)- 60 MIN
CAD
Canada is the fifth largest gold producer and fourteenth largest oil producer. Thereby, strong commodity prices generally benefit domestic producers and increase their income from exports. There is a caveat, though, and that is the positive correlation makes the Canadian dollar more expensive in USD terms. Since Canada's economy is very dependent on external demand from the United States, a strong CAD could filter into reduced demand for Canadian Exports.
Visit a dedicated USD/CAD page.
NZD/USD SPOT - 60 MIN
NZD
New Zealand is primarily an agricultural-commodity-producing economy (dairy products and meat in particular), and therefore it displays a weaker correlation than CAD and AUD to metal and energy prices. But still, it is highly sensitive to global performance, especially of its key trading partners, Australia, United States and Japan. It's commodity currency status is also to be understood via its dependency on the Australian economy, and since Australia is very commodity driven, any changes affecting the Australian economy affect New Zealand as well. Against the Japanese yen, the NZD can bee regarded as a risk barometer.
HOW BULLISH ARE COMMODITY CURRENCIES AND THE USD AGAINST A BASQUET OF 21 WORLD CURRENCIES?
The Bullish Percentage Index compares the four majors against the 21 most traded currencies (according to the BIS statistics). Among these currencies are the Korean Won, the Mexican Peso, the Turkish Lira, the Brazilian Real, etc. It shows the percentage of currency crosses on buy signals on Point and Figure charts. Point and Figure charts have the particularity of being objectively bullish or bearish, depending on the most recent double-top/bottom buy or sell signal. The Bullish Percentage Index is a breadth indicator used in stock indices, and its logic has been adopted by FXStreet.com to measure currency strength.
The index can be read as an oscillator, with readings between 0% and 100%. It is updated on a daily basis, on GMT close, and compared to the same data 5 days ago.
Latest Commodities Analysis
Editors' picks
زوج يورو/دولار EUR/USD لا يزال معروضًا دون مستوى 1.1400
يورو/دولار EUR/USD يبني على تراجع يوم الجمعة ويعاود زيارة منطقة 1.1380، أو أدنى مستوياته خلال عدة أيام، في بداية أسبوع سلبية إلى حد كبير. تأتي الخسائر الإضافية للزوج استجابة للارتداد الملحوظ في الدولار الأمريكي، المدعوم في الوقت نفسه بالتوترات المستمرة بلا هوادة في الشرق الأوسط. في هذه الأثناء، يواصل المستثمرون الاستعداد لبيانات مؤشر أسعار المستهلك CPI الأمريكية القادمة والشهادة نصف السنوية لرئيس البنك وورش.
زوج استرليني/دولار GBP/USD يتراجع أكثر، ويصل إلى أدنى مستوياته في ثلاثة أيام
يتعرض الجنيه الإسترليني لضغوط بيع إضافية في بداية الأسبوع، مما يدفع زوج استرليني/دولار GBP/USD إلى أدنى مستوياته خلال ثلاثة أيام بالقرب من 1.3350. يتبع الانخفاض المستمر للجنيه الإسترليني تحسن النغمة في الدولار الأمريكي مع استمرار التوترات في الشرق الأوسط دون انحسار.
يحتفظ زوج الدولار الأمريكي / الين الياباني بمكاسبه قرب 162.00 مع ارتفاع الدولار الأمريكي بسبب التوترات الجديدة بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران
يجذب زوج الدولار الأمريكي/الين الياباني USD/JPY بعض المشترين في عمليات الشراء اللاحقة في بداية أسبوع جديد يوم الاثنين ليعيد اختبار منطقة 162.00 لفترة وجيزة. تشن الولايات المتحدة وإيران جولة جديدة من الضربات بعد أيام من التصعيد، مما دفع، إلى جانب إغلاق مضيق هرمز، أسعار النفط الخام إلى الارتفاع وأعاد مخاوف التضخم. هذا يرفع رهانات رفع سعر الفائدة من بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، مما يدعم الدولار الأمريكي كملاذ آمن.
الذهب يخترق مستوى 4000 دولار، ويختبر أدنى مستوياته الشهرية
يظل الذهب تحت ضغط هبوطي ملحوظ يوم الاثنين، حيث كسر حاجز 4000 دولار الرئيسي للأوقية ليتداول بالقرب من أدنى مستوياته الشهرية. يأتي تراجع المعدن النفيس استجابةً للتعافي الإضافي في الدولار الأمريكي وتصاعد المخاوف المحيطة بالصراع بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران.
خام غرب تكساس الوسيط يبتعد عن الأعلى، لا يزال قويا قرب 74 دولار على إغلاق هرمز
يتراجع خام غرب تكساس الوسيط إلى قرب 74 دولار في الجلسة الأوروبية يوم الاثنين، بعد أن قفز بأكثر من %4 إلى 75 دولار. تحافظ أسعار النفط الأمريكية على مكاسب كبيرة عقب تبادل صاروخي جديد بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران خلال عطلة نهاية الأسبوع، مما أدى إلى إغلاق إيران لمضيق هرمز وتجدد المخاوف بشأن الإمدادات.